Recommendation for this development strategy of Vietnam, Mr. Sebastian Eckardt – WB’s chief economist paid special attention to the issue of improving the quality of growth …
“This is a golden opportunity, an important time for Vietnam to face new challenges and find a way to realize its ambition to become a high-income economy in 2045,” said Ousmane. Dione – Country Director of WB in Vietnam emphasized that when Vietnam is collecting opinions for the development of the Socio-Economic Development Strategy (socio-economic) period 2021 – 2030 and the Socio-Economic Development Plan period 2021-2025.
Golden chance or risk of falling behind
It can be said that this is an important time of hinge to determine the quality of growth when Vietnam is focusing its resources on developing the Socio-Economic Development Strategy for the period of 2021 – 2030. Therefore, the Minister of Planning – Head Nguyen Chi Dung said that the construction of these two important documents needs to identify and forecast major era trends that will directly impact and create emerging issues in Vietnam’s development.
He also wishes to develop this strategy that will identify and appreciate the development bottlenecks of Vietnam during the past 5-year Strategy and Plan; as well as solutions and policies to liberate the growth motivation in the coming time …
Commenting on Vietnam’s development strategy, Mr. Ousmane Dione – WB Country Director in Vietnam said: “When I look forward to the next decade, I see many opportunities, but also the risks. The world is changing rapidly and Vietnam needs to catch up or risk falling behind. ”
Accordingly, the global trade model is changing; while the application of more and more advanced technologies in manufacturing – such as robots, 3D printing, smart production … can create new opportunities for Vietnam to catch up with technology faster and even jump. .
But Vietnam will face a rapidly aging population, slowing productivity growth and low investment growth, affecting Vietnam’s medium-term growth potential. While many of the driving forces behind the country’s growth will gradually decline over the next decade.
In that context, how can Vietnam maintain high growth but has quality? How can domestic market institutions be modernized to create a business environment where private enterprises, including domestic enterprises, can develop? What skills does Vietnam need to be able to compete, not only in basic production but also on the value chain, catching up with rapidly changing technologies, and leaving no group of people lagging behind? …
Finding a policy solution to these questions is not easy and it may be more difficult to implement them. But with the right mindset, strong determination and coordination among sectors and levels, I am confident that Vietnam can do it, “said Ousmane Dione.
Now or never
Recommendation for this development strategy of Vietnam, Mr. Sebastian Eckardt – WB’s chief economist paid special attention to the issue of improving the quality of growth. “Now or never. Vietnam must act very quickly because the period of Vietnam benefiting from the golden population is not much, only 22 years, “he stressed.
Vietnam is growing fast but still lower than other fast-growing economies in East Asia. Without extensive reforms and maintaining growth as usual, the growth rate will decrease, to about 5.7% in the coming time, which is lower than the set target of 6.5-7. , 5%.
A clear point is that the Vietnamese economy still lacks capital but cannot absorb domestic capital when the savings rate is high but the rate of capital investment is low. Credit growth is fast but still difficult to borrow money. Business still faces obstacles … The improvement of productivity over the past 20 years is still lower than in the region and the world. So if there is no solution to increase productivity, Vietnam’s long-term growth issue is worrying.
But “The middle income trap is not destiny,” said the chief economist of the World Bank. Addressing 3 key messages: High population aging rate, low investment and productivity growth, he said that in order to escape from the middle income trap, Vietnam needs to increase investment and boost productivity to regenerate. growth and become a high-income country by 2045; Extensive reforms are needed in three main areas: It is to increase the efficiency of financial intermediaries for savings to be included in investment, capital markets with depth to create more long-term capital for businesses and the banking sector. healthy;
That is to solve the bottlenecks that hinder the real economic sector, investment and development of the private sector, to reform the new generation business environment such as having a legal framework for bankruptcy and developing the market. production factors and legal framework for competition;
It is to promote innovation, improve national innovation and ecosystem for innovation and competition … “Vietnam must seize opportunities, promote strong reforms. Can’t miss these opportunities. This decade is an important time for Vietnam to face new challenges and find a way to realize its ambition to become a high-income economy by 2045. ”, WB Director in Vietnam stated.
Dr. Bui Tat Thang, Institute of Development Strategy (Ministry of Planning and Investment) said that the goal of the strategy is: Strive to become a modern industrial country with a high average income by 2030. By 2045, to become a modern industrialized and socialist-oriented industrial country.
Under this goal, the strategy will consist of four major content directions, namely: Growth is fast enough to counter the risk of falling behind; Quality growth to ensure sustainability (ie growth with efficiency, green growth, inclusive growth); Sustainable social and environmental development; There is a full, modern and integrated market economy institution. The strategy will also identify continued implementation of three strategic breakthroughs (institutional, human and infrastructure), but with new content appropriate to the new context. At the same time adding a new strategic breakthrough, probably: Science, technology and innovation; Promoting Vietnamese cultural and human values.
According to the Banking Times